Aggregator Evaluation Volume II

Jun 2, 2012

This report provides an assessment of the extent to which modifications to the current settlement baseline calculation rules improves settlement accuracy for aggregator demand response (DR) programs operated by the three California investor-owned utilities (IOUs), Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE) and San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E). Specifically, the assessment includes the statewide Capacity Bidding Program (CBP), which is operated by all three IOUs, PG&E’s Aggregator Managed Portfolio (AMP) and SCE’s Demand Response Resource Contracts (DRRC). Collectively, these programs are referred to as aggregator programs. This report is the second of two volumes documenting the ex post impact evaluation of the aggregator programs for 2011. Volume 1 contains the ex post impact estimates for each 2011 event for each program and resource option (e.g., day-of or day ahead). In this report, various baseline methods are tested on both actual 2011 event days, in which the baseline impact estimates are compared to the regression based estimates presented in Volume I, and on event-like days, in which baseline estimates are compared with simulated impacts that are known with certainty. In total, 32 baseline methods are evaluated. In each case, the baseline is calculated using the same-hour average of the 10 weekdays immediately preceding the curtailment event in question, excluding other event days and holidays – also known as a 10-in-10 baseline.